Analysis

It's a game of Whack-A-Mole for AFL coaches as they try to fix problems

Rohan Connolly
Updated May 9 2024 - 11:36am, first published May 8 2024 - 2:00pm

AFL coaches must feel sometimes like they're playing a real life game of Whack-A-Mole.

Knock one problem on the head and another will pop up elsewhere.

WATCH: Swans pay tribute to Bondi victims

Worse, it might do so because of the first knock.

That's how it is for coaches forever balancing the need for a strong, stingy defence with a forward set-up which can score sufficiently.

Focus too intently on one priority and the other may suffer. It's a fine line.

Importantly, what we also know for sure is that AFL premierships are almost always won by teams which rank in the top six for both points scored and fewest points conceded.

And right now, only two teams fit that bill, not surprisingly, the top two teams on the ladder, Sydney and Geelong, the Swans currently ranked first and third for attack and defence respectively, and the Cats fourth and fourth.

Most of the other popular flag contenders at the moment aren't faring well enough in one of the two areas.

For example, Greater Western Sydney is second for points scored but a mediocre ninth for points against. Melbourne's renowned defence is stellar again, ranked first in the competition, but the Demons are also once again struggling to score enough, ranked ninth.

Carlton's strengths, in contrast, seem to have swung wildly from last year to this.

The Blues last year ranked only ninth for scores, but were outstanding defensively, ranked fourth.

In 2024, however, that rating has slid dramatically to 14th, the Blues very poor defending scores from opposition stoppage wins, in which their ranking has slipped from first to 16th.

Reigning premier Collingwood, meanwhile, has had issues in both areas.

Adelaide Crows' Ben Keays flies for a mark when playing against Hawthorn at UTAS Stadium in Launceston in 2023. Picture by Phillip Biggs
Adelaide Crows' Ben Keays flies for a mark when playing against Hawthorn at UTAS Stadium in Launceston in 2023. Picture by Phillip Biggs

Ranked fourth for offence and third for defence last year, the Pies are at the moment only seventh and 13th respectively, though you do feel after Collingwood's last few weeks like those standings are set to climb sooner than later.

And Essendon represents something of an anomaly.

Fifth on the AFL ladder with five wins and a draw, the Bombers are only ninth for attack and a lowly 12th for defence, perhaps a reflection of three narrow wins by just a goal or less and a draw.

What was that about a fine line?

Perhaps the two most interesting case studies of the "Whack-A-Mole" effect at the moment, though, are Adelaide and Brisbane.

Both have had profoundly disappointing starts to 2024.

The Crows, who would have played finals last season, but for that unfortunate goal umpiring error against Sydney, were widely-tipped to make it this time around, their attack (ranked No.1) officially the most potent in the competition, only their defence (No. 9) needing some work.

Brisbane, meanwhile, just a kick away from a flag last year, was the second-highest scoring team of 2023, and its defence conceded the sixth-fewest points of any team.

It made sense that should the Lions maintain that forward potency and tighten their defence just a little, a flag was a likely prospect.

Brisbane has done that, too, moving from sixth to fifth on those defensive rankings despite winning only three of its eight games.

Paradoxically, though, the loss for the season of brilliant running defender Keidean Coleman and another attacking backman Conor McKenna for five weeks early in the season has robbed the Lions of much of their attacking impetus.

The Lions' ball movement has slowed considerably, their ranking for defensive midfield transition to the forward 50 having slipped from sixth to 15th and that lost connection between defence and attack reflected in their points scored ranking slipping from second to a dismal 14th .

Adelaide, meanwhile has also tightened its defence, which despite its relative absence of "big" names, is getting good value from the likes of Mark Keane and Max Michalanney.

But the Crows' attack has struggled, slipping from the highest-scoring team to just 12th as key forwards Taylor Walker and Darcy Fogarty have both had their problems.

Adelaide skipper Jordan Dawson confirmed to me shortly before the season just how intense had been the team's focus on defence during the summer break.

"Definitely our full-team defence and the way we set up the ground," he said.

"Defensively, we really want to take that (ranking) up to top four, we know we can be better and we've put a lot of emphasis on that side of the game."

It's fair to ask, however, have they continued to also place enough emphasis on what were their strengths?

Because while Adelaide's last month has been a lot better, winning three games and losing the other game in that period by just three points, the Crows' attack hasn't looked nearly as threatening as it did last season.

That said, Fogarty in particular has looked a lot sharper the past few weeks, certainly clunking more marks than he did during the first five or so rounds.

Perhaps that will prove the key to unlocking the forward floodgates for Adelaide.

That would solve one problem for Crows' coach Matthew Nicks. Don't expect that, though, to mean it will be smooth sailing from there in.

Like all AFL coaches, Nicks knows all too well that there'll be another problem emerge soon enough requiring another metaphorical knock on the head.

Rohan Connolly

Rohan Connolly is one of the most experienced and respected sporting journalists in the country, particularly passionate about football, and with a 40-year track record of observing it at close quarters in print, online, and on radio and TV.